2026 Luxury Housing Market Forecast: Stability and Opportunity Across Canada and the U.S.

As we look ahead to 2026, the luxury housing markets across North America are shaping up for a year of stability, measured growth, and opportunity.

After several years of high volatility, rising mortgage rates, and fluctuating inventory levels, both Canada and the United States are entering a period where buyers and sellers can expect a more balanced, predictable market.

In the United States, Realtor.com’s 2026 National Housing Forecast points to a steadier housing market overall. Mortgage rates are expected to average 6.3%, providing slight relief to buyers navigating affordability challenges. Home prices are projected to rise modestly by 2.2%, offering a stable backdrop for investment without the pressure of dramatic spikes. Existing-home sales are forecast to climb 1.7% to 4.13 million, a meaningful rebound from 2025’s near 30-year low, while for-sale inventory is expected to grow nearly 9% year-over-year. These shifts signal a market that is increasingly balanced, with negotiating power subtly tilting toward buyers while maintaining steady demand for high-end properties. Luxury buyers, particularly those seeking prime urban or lifestyle-focused homes in markets such as Miami, Los Angeles, Manhattan, Palm Beach, and Aspen, will continue to benefit from these conditions, finding opportunities to purchase without the pressure of overheated bidding wars.

In Canada, the story is similar, though with some notable regional differences. According to Royal LePage, the luxury segment is expected to experience modest growth, with markets such as Montreal, Quebec City, and other secondary urban centers performing particularly well. In contrast, traditional hubs like Toronto and Vancouver may see slower appreciation due to higher inventory levels and more cautious buyer activity. Despite this, ultra-luxury properties priced at $10 million or more remain in strong demand, often transacting off-market and in highly sought-after enclaves. The Canadian luxury market is benefiting from economic stability and a resilient base of high-net-worth buyers, creating opportunities for sellers who are strategic in pricing and positioning their properties.

“Solid market fundamentals – including lower interest rates, increased supply, and reduced competition – have created a more favourable environment for consumers,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage.

Taken together, North America’s luxury housing market in 2026 can be described as balanced and opportunity-rich. Buyers can expect more choices and greater negotiating flexibility as inventories recover, while sellers still have the advantage of targeting a wealthy and resilient buyer base. Price growth is likely to be modest rather than dramatic, and markets will continue to show regional differences, with secondary and emerging luxury markets sometimes outperforming traditional hubs. Overall, the conditions suggest a period of measured, stable growth—an environment where both buyers and sellers can make strategic, confident decisions in the high-end market.

Read the full Realtor.com report here.

Read the full Royal LePage Canada report here.

View more Market Updates on LuxuryRealty.com.

Sources:
Realtor.com, 2026 National Housing Forecast
Royal LePage, Canada’s Housing Market Poised for a Reset in 2026